Crystal Umbrella

As we begin to slowly move out of the recession, all eyes are on the jobs market for signs of continued improvement. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) has just released their latest Jobs Outlook report and it signals that employers’ hiring intentions are once again on the increase.

Data contained within the report shows that ten per cent of the employers that the REC spoke to believed that their permanent staff quota would rise in the next three months. In the report released at the end of the last month only five per cent of employers were predicting an increase in permanent staff. Similarly, looking over the year ahead, sixteen per cent of employers believe that their permanent staff will increase over the twelve months, which is an increase of three per cent from last month.

However, with regards to temporary staff, seventy two per cent of employers believe that the number of staff they use will stay the same over the next year. Only five percent of employers expect an increase in temporary staff over the next quarter.

Rather startling was the disclosure by forty per cent of employers that the recession had not affected their staff at all. Of course, redundancies do continue and twenty two per cent of employers are planning redundancies, although this was a reduction of two per cent from the previous month. However, as the recession continues to loom large, employers are still required to take action to cope in these difficult financial times and as such, three per cent are planning to cut employee working hours and introduce pay reductions.

Director of research at REC, Roger Tweedy says: “It is encouraging that employer confidence is slowly but surely starting to manifest itself in terms of hiring intentions. However, it is very early days and a number of employers are still making redundancies or cutting working hours. Regular data on how employers are reacting to subtle changes in the jobs market is essential and will help recruiters to plan ahead over the coming months.”

New figures released by the Office for National Statistic show that unemployment rose by 88,000 to 2.47 million between June and August of this year. As a result the number of people claiming unemployment benefit rose to 1.63 million.

Chief economist at the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), David Kern, said that while unemployment is still rising it has done so at a slower pace. He commented that this is evidence that the recession is coming to an end.

He said: “There is no room for complacency, and a sustainable recovery is not guaranteed. Although confidence is strengthening, businesses are still facing serious pressures, particularly small and medium sized firms. Lending is still too weak, and many are struggling to retain their skills base.”

Speak to the Recruiter, Luc Fountain from recruitment company Liberty Resourcing, stated: “We are putting out some quite junior positions for reception and administration. If we put out these jobs a year ago, I would not have had any responses but we are now getting around 600 responses for these roles.”

Yvette Cooper, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions concluded: “Although unemployment isn’t as high today as many feared it would be at the time of the budget, it remains a serious problem, which is why we must keep increasing support and advice to get people back into jobs. We will not leave them on their own.”

Employment screening firm Powerchex has noted that employment opportunities are finally increasing in the financial services sector.

Financial services recruitment had been badly affected by the recent economic slowdown with 81% fewer jobs for investment bankers in April to June this year in comparison to the same period last year. Employment opportunities within insurance firms fell by 26% over the same period. Employees across the sector, from IT contractors to stockbrokers and managers saw employment opportunities slump by over 40%.

However, when the second quarter of 2009 is compared to the first quarter, signs of a recovery are notable. During this period stockbroker recruitment has increased by 77%. Recruitment by insurance firms and investment managers has increased by 8%. IT contractor hiring has only fallen by 3% this year which is another sign that the sector is starting to recover.

Managing director of Powerchex, Alexandra Kelly says, “Things are certainly improving within financial services. Firms have been recruiting quite aggressively recently as the economic situation stabilises and they attempt to make the most of a very talented pool of people who are desperate for work. Things haven’t returned to last year’s levels but there are plenty of jobs out there.”

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has carried out their annual Economic Study, which shows that the worst of the recession could be behind us.

According to their findings, manufacturers have coped better with the economic downturn than services based on Q2, however; overall the manufacturing sector is in a worse condition. Based on a comparison of this years and last year’s Q3, turnover confidence has risen 40 points for manufacturing firms, from -38 in Q1 to +2 in Q2.

Despite both sectors aiming to hire again, the BCC is predicting that by the mid-2010 unemployment rates will be at 3.2 million.

Speaking about their findings, Director at the British Chambers of Commerce, David Frost said, “These results are sending Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling a strong message from the business community. It is absolutely vital that the improvement in business confidence is nurtured.”

He continued, “Our economy is based on confidence, and wealth creating businesses need to know they will be given the freedom and flexibility to drive the UK out of recession and into a sustainable recovery.”

Chief economist at the BCC, David Kern added, “The pace of decline in the UK economy is clearly moderating. The worst phase of the recession is over, but serious downward pressures persist across all sectors and regions. Most key balances are still in negative territory and remain weak by historical standards. Recovery is now possible but it is not yet secure. Further corrective measures are still needed to support the economy. The marked improvement in confidence, albeit from exceptionally low levels, is welcome. However, these recent gains can only be sustained if the economy continues to stabilise and the recession ends.”